2004 Poverty Research Small Grants
Funded research
Economic Conditions and Public Support for Social Welfare Programs
Cindy D. Kam, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California-Davis. Yunju Nam, Assistant Professor of Social Work, Washington University
Description
In this proposal, we explore the impact of economic conditions on public support for social welfare programs. We hypothesize that public support for welfare programs consists of a balancing between personal net financial effects of these programs and social values. Further, we hypothesize that macroeconomic conditions play a crucial role in determining the level of personal net financial effects and the impact of social values in support for welfare programs.
We propose analysis of two separate stacked cross-sections spanning the period between 1980 and 2000, from the National Election Studies and the General Social Surveys. With the stacked cross-sectional data across the time period, we gain leverage over variation in macroeconomic conditions. We construct a theoretically derived reduced form equation that allows us to test directly our hypotheses about the ways in which macroeconomic conditions influence public support for welfare programs. We will use appropriate econometric techniques, including estimating the relationships with ordered probit and employing techniques to control for within-year correlations in the residuals.
Results from our analysis will identify the determinants of public support for welfare programs. They will aid policymakers by suggesting which strategies, under which conditions, might effectively increase support for programs for the poor. The results will have broad appeal for both the social policy communities and for scholars of public opinion.
